Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3696 at 13:06, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3696 Southwest	MKE 13:06	MCI 14:47	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	5h 31m	97%	87%
American Details →	MKE 06:02 → PHL 09:17AA 5200 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 10:20 → MCI 12:31AA 1480	6h 29m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	6h 57m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	5h 28m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023	6h 53m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	6h 19m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	6h 13m	96%	83%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → MCI 10:22UA 1764	5h 22m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON