Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2910 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2910 Southwest	MKE 05:56	MDW 06:48	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4705 Southwest	MKE 17:01	MDW 17:53	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 16m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 04m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 35m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 07m	90%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON