Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3804 MKE 09:58 → MSP 11:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3821 MKE 18:55 → MSP 20:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3804 SkyWest	MKE 09:58	MSP 11:21	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4074 SkyWest	MKE 06:28	MSP 07:53	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:07	MSP 13:26	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
OO 3934 SkyWest	MKE 08:03	MSP 09:27	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	12%	5%	0.5%	76%
OO 3821 SkyWest	MKE 18:55	MSP 20:20	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON