Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5799 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 5799 MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5648 MKE 15:49 → ORD 16:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	5%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:02	ORD 06:01	6%	3%	0.7%	69%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:21	ORD 08:21	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	13%	5%	0.7%	74%
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:33	ORD 08:32	14%	5%	0.7%	70%
OO 4993 SkyWest	MKE 08:34	ORD 09:33	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	MKE 11:38	ORD 12:32	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4035 Envoy	MKE 14:51	ORD 15:45	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:45	ORD 11:44	15%	5%	0.7%	63%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:19	ORD 15:18	19%	5%	0.7%	65%
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:06	ORD 13:05	22%	6%	0.7%	69%
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 13:16	ORD 14:15	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:35	ORD 19:34	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 15:49	ORD 16:48	25%	7%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON