Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5200 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 5200 MKE 06:02 → PHL 09:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 5531 MKE 18:06 → PHL 21:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5200 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:02	PHL 09:17	9%	4%	2.3%	100%
AA 5356 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 13:17	PHL 16:31	18%	6%	1.9%	78%
AA 5531 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 18:06	PHL 21:20	19%	7%	2.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON