Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3234 at 10:26, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3234 Southwest	MKE 10:26	SAN 12:45	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	7h 59m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	8h 18m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924	9h 04m	99%	81%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29UA 2428	6h 29m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 08m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761	8h 59m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:37DL 712	8h 39m	99%	79%
United Details →	MKE 08:04 → IAH 10:53UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Houston	IAH 14:20 → SAN 15:50UA 1114	9h 46m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	57m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	6h 52m	67%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON