Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 507 at 14:59, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	MKE 14:59	SEA 17:24	17%	3%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	6h 53m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	8h 38m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	9h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	6h 49m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	9h 13m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 18m	96%	81%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341	6h 40m	93%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	7h 20m	69%	57%
United Details →	MKE 14:20 → ORD 15:19UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801	6h 46m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON