tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3065 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3065 Southwest MKE 08:16 STL 09:43 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2872 Southwest MKE 17:51 STL 19:19 15% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 37m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 54m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 4h 43m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 7h 07m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 55m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:03 → ORD 06:02AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Chicago ORD 08:53 → STL 10:20AA 2818 5h 17m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Chicago ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044 6h 15m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 10:46 → IAH 13:40UA 6254 · flown by Mesa 1h 51m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 6h 56m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 1h 07m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 4h 02m 69% 60%
UnitedDetails → MKE 15:50 → ORD 16:49UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 3h 33m 73% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON