Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1413 United	MRY 05:18	DEN 09:08	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 12:29	DEN 16:19	16%	6%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 17:50 → DEN 21:34UA 1652	6h 40m	97%	85%
United Details →	MRY 08:04 → LAX 09:39UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	7h 12m	98%	84%
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	7h 35m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m San Diego	SAN 08:43 → DEN 12:00AS 1422	5h 00m	91%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON