Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2879 at 12:33, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2879 American Flight history →	MRY 12:33	DFW 18:10	29%	7%	1.4%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 06:01 → PHX 08:01AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	7h 09m	100%	83%
American Details →	MRY 12:47 → PHX 14:44AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 17:09 → DFW 21:38AA 2210	6h 51m	100%	77%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 30m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 10:25 → DFW 16:08UA 2842	6h 08m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON