Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 6348 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 6348 MRY 06:01 → PHX 08:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 4974 MRY 16:06 → PHX 18:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 06:01	PHX 08:01	7%	5%	1.8%	80%
AA 3527 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MRY 12:47	PHX 14:44	18%	4%	2.2%	94%worse than usual
OO 4974 SkyWest	MRY 16:06	PHX 18:06	21%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON