tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AS 3384 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 06:00 SAN 07:34 13% 7% 8.7% 91%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 14:40 SAN 16:18 23% 9% 3.5% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MRY 06:01 → PHX 08:01AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122 6h 24m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:47 → PHX 14:44AA 3527 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Phoenix PHX 17:03 → SAN 18:32AA 480 5h 45m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 08m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SAN 17:30UA 582 3h 36m 82% 62%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:04 → LAX 09:39UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 54m Los Angeles LAX 10:33 → SAN 11:33UA 1068 3h 29m 76% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 3h 51m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON