Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 12:47, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 12:47 → PHX 14:44AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 17:19 → SEA 20:28AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	89%
American Details →	MRY 06:00 → PHX 08:00AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → SEA 13:53AA 2208	7h 53m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m San Diego	SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:16AS 1368	8h 16m	99%	65%
United Details →	MRY 08:33 → SFO 09:26UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m San Francisco	SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744	5h 57m	92%	60%
American Details →	MRY 12:33 → DFW 18:10AA 2879	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:32 → SEA 21:45AA 2009	9h 12m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON