tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4391 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4391 Republic MSN 08:39 BOS 12:29 11% 4% 0.9% no record
YX 5849 Republic MSN 15:16 BOS 18:56 23% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 57m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSN 05:02 → ORD 06:07UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Chicago ORD 07:30 → BOS 11:00UA 659 4h 58m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSN 05:55 → DCA 09:04AA 5374 · flown by PSA 1h 37m Washington DCA 10:41 → BOS 12:25AA 1015 5h 30m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:49 → ORD 07:56UA 2137 2h 34m Chicago ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606 6h 18m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:00 → CLT 10:16AA 1002 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:39 → BOS 15:02AA 1140 7h 02m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558 6h 58m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 2h 09m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 5h 47m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518 7h 23m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet 1h 17m Chicago ORD 20:17 → BOS 23:48UA 1365 5h 03m 74% 55%
DeltaDetails → MSN 15:10 → LGA 18:29DL 5033 · flown by Endeavor 1h 32m New York LGA 20:01 → BOS 21:15DL 5800 · flown by Republic 5h 05m 73% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON