Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1002 American Flight history →	MSN 07:00	CLT 10:16	8%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 2443 American	MSN 14:15	CLT 17:25	16%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 38m	98%	89%
United Details →	MSN 06:49 → ORD 07:56UA 2137	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 46m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	6h 12m	100%	83%
American Details →	MSN 05:55 → DCA 09:04AA 5374 · flown by PSA	2h 48m Washington	DCA 11:52 → CLT 13:24AA 761	6h 29m	100%	82%
American Details →	MSN 07:09 → LGA 10:44AA 4490 · flown by Republic	1h 26m New York	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	6h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4765 · flown by Endeavor	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 24m	93%	79%
American Details →	MSN 09:42 → ORD 10:43AA 3923 · flown by Envoy	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:20AA 1409	5h 38m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSN 15:10 → LGA 18:29DL 5033 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m New York	LGA 19:42 → CLT 21:39DL 5705 · flown by Republic	5h 29m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON