Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5374 MSN 05:55 → DCA 09:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5645 MSN 17:20 → DCA 20:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5374 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 05:55	DCA 09:04	8%	4%	2.6%	90%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 12:14	DCA 15:22	14%	6%	2.5%	72%
YX 4415 Republic	MSN 16:24	DCA 19:42	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 17:20	DCA 20:24	16%	6%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON