Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5927 MSN 05:08 → DEN 06:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5485 MSN 17:59 → DEN 19:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5927 SkyWest	MSN 05:08	DEN 06:48	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2360 United Flight history →	MSN 08:50	DEN 10:20	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1184 United	MSN 14:38	DEN 16:08	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5485 SkyWest	MSN 17:59	DEN 19:51	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON