Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 844 at 13:31, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 844 MSN 13:31 → DTW 15:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 844 Delta Flight history →	MSN 13:31	DTW 15:49	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 4765 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 07:00	DTW 09:25	14%	7%	6.5%	86%
DL 5214 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 18:32	DTW 20:58	26%	14%	0.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON