Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:29	EWR 09:50	6%	3%	2.7%	92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 10:45	EWR 14:05	13%	6%	2.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSN 05:02 → ORD 06:07UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → EWR 10:41UA 1273	4h 39m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	98%	84%
United Details →	MSN 06:49 → ORD 07:56UA 2137	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 28m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4765 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	3h 56m	86%	71%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	1h 17m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 41m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 47m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:31 → DTW 15:49DL 844	1h 55m Detroit	DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567	4h 59m	97%	60%
American Details →	MSN 09:42 → ORD 10:43AA 3923 · flown by Envoy	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 13:10 → EWR 16:30AA 1936	5h 48m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSN 15:37 → ORD 16:46AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	50m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	4h 23m	71%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON