Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3166 MSN 05:57 → MSP 07:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4103 MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3166 Delta	MSN 05:57	MSP 07:09	3%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 08:52	MSP 10:10	7%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 5480 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 18:13	MSP 19:30	35%	11%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON