Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3819 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3819 MSN 05:05 → ORD 06:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5586 MSN 18:39 → ORD 19:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3819 Envoy	MSN 05:05	ORD 06:06	8%	4%	2.1%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 05:02	ORD 06:07	8%	4%	1.9%	89%
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:49	ORD 07:56	10%	3%	1.4%	80%
MQ 4216 Envoy	MSN 07:13	ORD 08:14	12%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 394 United	MSN 08:24	ORD 09:35	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:42	ORD 10:43	14%	4%	1.7%	79%
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:49	ORD 15:55	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:11	ORD 17:32	19%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:58	ORD 14:03	22%	8%	2.0%	82%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:37	ORD 16:46	24%	7%	2.0%	41%
UA 5383 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:43	ORD 13:48	24%	8%	2.1%	70%
OO 5586 SkyWest	MSN 18:39	ORD 19:44	25%	8%	1.8%	no record
UA 4603 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 17:45	ORD 19:00	41%	18%	5.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON