tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1351 American MSN 14:40 PHX 16:26 14% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 5h 54m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSN 05:01 → ORD 06:06UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Chicago ORD 07:23 → PHX 09:17UA 2795 6h 16m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 15m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:49 → ORD 07:56UA 2137 3h 05m Chicago ORD 11:01 → PHX 12:49UA 2164 8h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 06m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:24 → PHX 14:26UA 631 7h 36m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSN 08:10 → CLT 11:20AA 1002 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 14:44 → PHX 16:16AA 1711 10h 06m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → PHX 17:42DL 836 8h 35m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON