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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974 9h 57m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 39m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 52m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon 2h 23m Seattle SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:27AS 1306 6h 27m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 12:51 → PDX 13:20AS 2042 · flown by Horizon 1h 19m Portland PDX 14:39 → LAX 17:06AS 713 5h 15m 89% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 1h 05m Denver DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753 5h 36m 86% 69%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967 9h 06m 83% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON