Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2907 Delta Flight history →	MSO 05:55	MSP 09:28	7%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSO 15:28	MSP 19:05	10%	3%	0.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 35m	97%	88%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	6h 39m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	2h 15m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	6h 25m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	5h 57m	92%	78%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 18:26 → MSP 19:58UA 2865	6h 24m	89%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON