Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2042 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MSO 12:51	PDX 13:20	18%	6%	2.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	7h 46m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	6h 03m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	MSO 16:07 → SEA 16:36AS 660	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 15m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	MSO 19:59 → SEA 20:33AS 2138 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	5h 23m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON