Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2169 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MSO 14:04	SAN 15:56	41%	14%	0.0%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 29m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 04m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 36m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	5h 51m	99%	76%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Denver	DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281	7h 44m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	MSO 12:51 → PDX 13:20AS 2042 · flown by Horizon	1h 42m Portland	PDX 15:02 → SAN 17:30AS 425	5h 39m	94%	69%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:32 → SAN 14:12AS 621	8h 12m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON