Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 722 MSO 07:02 → SEA 07:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 660 MSO 16:07 → SEA 16:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 722 Alaska	MSO 07:02	SEA 07:30	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	MSO 16:07	SEA 16:36	25%	5%	0.7%	82%
AS 2153 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MSO 07:00	SEA 07:32	15%	0%	0.0%	85%
AS 2138 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MSO 19:59	SEA 20:33	59%	5%	0.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON