Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 16:19	SFO 17:50	26%	12%	1.0%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 14m	97%	80%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 54m	100%	77%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 10m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 59m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	MSO 12:51 → PDX 13:20AS 2042 · flown by Horizon	1h 29m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	4h 49m	93%	72%
United Details →	MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436	1h 24m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 15m	91%	68%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → SFO 20:51UA 649	9h 17m	89%	59%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	5h 09m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON