Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 13:15	SLC 14:57	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 1826 Delta	MSO 05:25	SLC 07:00	6%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 24m	100%	92%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 29m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 08m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	MSO 07:00 → SEA 07:32AS 2153 · flown by Horizon	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 09:08 → SLC 12:03AS 661	5h 03m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	52m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	4h 37m	69%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON