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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 730 at 18:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 730 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:11 ABQ 19:55 11% 3% 0.4% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 1h 29m Denver DEN 08:23 → ABQ 09:59UA 1733 5h 14m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 8h 05m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 7h 05m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → ABQ 11:33AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 6h 39m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 34m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 07m Chicago ORD 08:51 → ABQ 11:11UA 723 6h 11m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON