Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 377 at 18:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 377 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	ANC 21:00	19%	3%	0.5%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	10h 20m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461	11h 16m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 09:35 → ANC 12:21AS 708	9h 18m	97%	71%
American Details →	MSP 10:28 → DFW 13:04AA 2220	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399	11h 59m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON