Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1062 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day DL 1062 MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3046 MSP 08:45 → ATL 12:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 05:20	ATL 08:54	3%	1%	0.4%	93%
DL 1052 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:26	ATL 11:54	5%	1%	0.4%	89%
DL 1039 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ATL 10:32	5%	1%	0.4%	90%
DL 1046 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:32	ATL 14:04	7%	1%	0.4%	85%
DL 1048 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	ATL 16:22	9%	2%	0.4%	81%
DL 1036 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:18	ATL 21:05	9%	2%	0.4%	83%
DL 2021 Delta	MSP 16:44	ATL 20:23	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 8773 Delta	MSP 19:24	ATL 23:03	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1026 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:37	ATL 22:28	11%	2%	0.4%	78%
F9 3046 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 08:45	ATL 12:29	19%	5%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON