Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3950 MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 2687 MSP 14:31 → AUS 17:17 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3950 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	AUS 09:55	10%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	AUS 12:50	10%	2%	0.4%	83%
WN 695 Southwest	MSP 11:11	AUS 14:01	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	AUS 22:25	15%	4%	0.5%	76%
DL 2687 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:31	AUS 17:17	15%	4%	0.4%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON