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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:06DL 3059 4h 46m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 55m Denver DEN 09:49 → AVL 14:56UA 1992 8h 11m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 5h 12m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099 5h 14m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 20:12 → AVL 21:19DL 3071 7h 34m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:19DL 3101 5h 47m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 2h 55m New York LGA 16:40 → AVL 18:32DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor 7h 27m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → MSP 07:21 → CLT 10:53AA 894 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 13:50 → AVL 14:42AA 5588 · flown by PSA 6h 21m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON