Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2007 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	BDL 10:43	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2285 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:26	BDL 18:04	13%	3%	0.5%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 09:58 → BDL 11:45DL 2163	4h 41m	98%	91%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195	7h 24m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 25m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	6h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	6h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → BDL 22:23DL 2765	8h 38m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	3h 05m Denver	DEN 17:53 → BDL 23:44UA 2254	9h 08m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	6h 27m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON