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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Billings on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30AA 1395 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:53 → BIL 13:03AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 8h 09m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 1h 01m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 97% 89%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 16:57 → SEA 18:52AS 510 2h 07m Seattle SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 7h 54m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 24m Denver DEN 13:45 → BIL 15:29UA 5845 · flown by SkyWest 7h 24m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 2h 11m Seattle SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon 8h 02m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 47m Denver DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest 4h 43m 84% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON