Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3069 MSP 07:16 → BNA 09:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4614 MSP 16:16 → BNA 18:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3069 Southwest	MSP 07:16	BNA 09:23	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BNA 14:52	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:29	BNA 17:35	12%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 4614 Southwest	MSP 16:16	BNA 18:24	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON