Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2649 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2649 MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2591 MSP 15:15 → BOS 19:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2649 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	BOS 10:45	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2655 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	BOS 13:51	13%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 1502 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	BOS 22:01	21%	6%	0.5%	73%
DL 2558 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:50	BOS 16:50	21%	5%	0.5%	70%
DL 2591 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	BOS 19:11	25%	8%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON