Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 15:22, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	12%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 09m	99%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442	8h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	2h 50m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	7h 14m	99%	78%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	2h 45m Denver	DEN 17:33 → BUF 22:45UA 731	8h 09m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 34m New York	LGA 16:19 → BUF 17:47DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	98%	72%
American Details →	MSP 15:55 → PHL 19:51AA 3294	2h 29m Philadelphia	PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont	6h 58m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719	1h 34m New York	LGA 12:18 → BUF 13:50DL 5362 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	96%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON