Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1178 MSP 06:16 → BWI 09:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2918 MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1178 Southwest	MSP 06:16	BWI 09:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	BWI 10:42	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:41	BWI 18:15	10%	3%	0.5%	63%
WN 1065 Southwest	MSP 14:56	BWI 18:26	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2918 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	BWI 23:13	12%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON