Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2946 at 10:58, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:58	BZN 12:31	5%	1%	0.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	8h 51m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	6h 44m	98%	89%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 23m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	7h 28m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 16:47 → BZN 19:05UA 1920	8h 33m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277	9h 21m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON