Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 894 MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1671 MSP 15:10 → CLT 18:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 894 American Flight history →	MSP 06:19	CLT 10:00	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1912 Delta	MSP 07:12	CLT 10:39	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:30	CLT 13:57	9%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 2821 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	CLT 18:49	12%	4%	0.5%	79%
AA 1672 American	MSP 11:01	CLT 14:33	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1671 American	MSP 15:10	CLT 18:49	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON