Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 954 MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 703 MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:14	CVG 10:03	6%	2%	0.4%	89%
OO 3733 SkyWest	MSP 12:55	CVG 15:49	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:50	CVG 18:37	12%	3%	0.4%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON