Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4384 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4384 MSP 05:57 → DEN 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2931 MSP 18:45 → DEN 19:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4384 Southwest	MSP 05:57	DEN 07:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2041 United Flight history →	MSP 05:45	DEN 06:54	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 447 Southwest	MSP 09:47	DEN 10:56	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1891 United Flight history →	MSP 09:05	DEN 10:21	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 4758 Southwest	MSP 11:07	DEN 12:16	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2830 Southwest	MSP 12:47	DEN 13:55	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 401 United	MSP 11:23	DEN 12:35	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1305 United Flight history →	MSP 13:36	DEN 14:48	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 2927 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DEN 12:05	11%	1%	0.5%	84%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	DEN 10:03	11%	1%	0.5%	82%
F9 1291 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 06:52	DEN 08:11	11%	3%	0.8%	76%
UA 1704 United	MSP 17:10	DEN 18:40	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1025 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:27	DEN 15:30	14%	3%	0.5%	80%
F9 3199 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 13:16	DEN 14:30	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 3076 Southwest	MSP 19:02	DEN 20:09	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1906 United	MSP 18:33	DEN 19:44	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	DEN 19:56	21%	3%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON