Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1395 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1395 MSP 05:54 → DFW 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3223 MSP 18:52 → DFW 21:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 05:54	DFW 08:30	5%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:03	DFW 12:29	9%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 1654 American	MSP 07:55	DFW 10:31	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2220 American Flight history →	MSP 10:28	DFW 13:04	10%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 2971 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:47	DFW 17:16	14%	3%	0.5%	76%
AA 1668 American	MSP 15:14	DFW 17:51	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 18:52	DFW 21:42	19%	6%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON