Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1461 MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1476 MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1461 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:04	DTW 08:47	4%	1%	0.4%	93%
DL 1433 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:00	DTW 11:42	7%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 1519 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:55	DTW 15:39	8%	2%	0.4%	91%
DL 1476 Delta Flight history →	MSP 16:15	DTW 18:59	12%	3%	0.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON