Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1870 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1870 MSP 06:09 → EWR 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2866 MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1870 United	MSP 06:09	EWR 09:50	5%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	EWR 10:49	7%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:14	EWR 12:56	11%	4%	1.0%	81%
UA 2232 United	MSP 10:20	EWR 14:11	11%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:10	EWR 17:53	26%	11%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON