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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → MSP 08:50 FLL 13:25 9% 2% 0.6% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 03m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 2041 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214 9h 01m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 2h 15m Hebron CVG 12:18 → FLL 14:51DL 2776 6h 37m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 27m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 3h 43m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 8h 30m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 15m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 13m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 15m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 41m Houston IAH 12:11 → FLL 16:01UA 1982 7h 26m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531 47m Chicago ORD 17:45 → FLL 21:51UA 463 5h 35m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON