Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4680 at 13:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4680 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 13:15	HPN 17:01	10%	3%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (White Plains is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 10:29 → HPN 12:22DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	5h 18m	99%	92%
American Details →	MSP 09:20 → ORD 10:49AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → HPN 17:15AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	6h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	8h 40m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:14 → HPN 14:49DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	8h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:23 → HPN 16:15DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	6h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → HPN 18:25DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	8h 59m	100%	83%
American Details →	MSP 07:21 → CLT 10:53AA 894	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 14:49 → HPN 16:56AA 5606 · flown by PSA	8h 35m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON