Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2656 MSP 07:05 → IAH 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2405 MSP 18:00 → IAH 21:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2656 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	IAH 09:59	7%	2%	0.4%	85%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	MSP 07:35	IAH 10:30	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2673 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	IAH 13:14	11%	2%	0.4%	79%
DL 2644 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:45	IAH 17:39	15%	3%	0.4%	78%
DL 2683 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:40	IAH 21:35	15%	4%	0.5%	74%
UA 2405 United	MSP 18:00	IAH 21:00	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON